Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 35.167057 41.578570 48.566881 56.716635 65.925605 75.974650 87.734303
2025-06-08 24.595158 32.883277 42.786593 55.347404 70.699231 88.692292 111.203501
2025-06-15 19.830037 29.130806 41.035866 57.078505 77.787535 103.258821 136.554773
2025-06-22 15.567716 24.954088 37.743923 55.924490 80.520777 112.021239 154.708337
2025-06-29 13.272494 22.938491 36.826488 57.458974 86.450663 124.788358 178.218705
2025-07-06 10.292817 19.331456 33.087590 54.502768 85.801289 128.562802 189.861887
2025-07-13 9.039167 18.162835 32.701584 56.177004 91.536100 141.049432 213.532208
2025-07-20 7.936406 17.032933 32.183351 57.503519 96.722585 152.893463 236.700764
2025-07-27 7.097621 16.207462 32.015272 59.276578 102.576253 165.845365 261.834868
2025-08-03 6.315546 15.341675 31.648801 60.637730 107.797501 178.020504 286.239269
2025-08-10 5.336960 13.907913 30.107424 59.881991 109.593938 185.131237 303.490931
2025-08-17 4.727356 13.111616 29.595738 60.774332 113.988686 196.232736 326.895754
2025-08-24 4.068096 12.141902 28.757858 61.228658 118.036382 207.508793 351.842521
2025-08-31 3.263736 10.659803 26.743020 59.408788 118.226622 212.900842 368.308261
2025-09-07 2.918802 10.207754 26.721861 61.221811 124.644282 228.324814 400.624801
2025-09-14 2.383587 9.115981 25.194432 60.000186 125.658225 235.063329 419.636102
2025-09-21 2.130051 8.731362 25.141766 61.623217 131.766145 250.287960 452.439655
2025-09-28 1.627696 7.448201 22.847346 58.495887 129.028311 250.710383 461.631226
2025-10-05 1.467293 7.193369 22.932440 60.267263 135.403274 266.621881 496.229671
2025-10-12 1.307573 6.890889 22.853903 61.670324 141.136935 281.624710 529.769227
2025-10-19 1.185968 6.686727 22.993039 63.545137 147.850933 298.526714 566.891712
2025-10-26 1.060402 6.424991 22.942077 64.983981 153.774679 314.236813 602.454575
2025-11-02 0.875441 5.847527 21.945896 64.185150 155.227897 322.119645 625.133548